Spatiotemporal Analysis of Forest Fire Occurrence and NDVI Based Vegetation Recovery in the Terai Arc Landscape (Tal), Nepal

Abstract

Forest fires are recurrent seasonal disturbances in Nepal’s lowland forests and strongly influence vegetation condition and recovery. This study assesses fire occurrence and NDVI-based vegetation recovery across the Terai Arc Landscape (TAL) from 2014–2023 using satellite data. Burned area was analysed for protected areas (PAs) and non-protected areas (NPAs), while MODIS NDVI time series were used to evaluate vegetation response and post-fire recovery. Results show strong spatial and temporal variability in fire activity, with April as the dominant fire month and forest-rich protected areas experiencing extensive burning. Annual burned area and mean NDVI showed a strong inverse relationship (r = −0.87). Single-fire trajectories showed marked NDVI declines during fire years followed by gradual recovery, but recovery rates differed substantially among protected areas. Banke and Bardiya showed comparatively faster recovery, whereas Chitwan and Shuklaphanta required longer periods. The findings demonstrate that burned-area extent alone does not explain vegetation recovery and highlight the value of integrated fire and NDVI monitoring for forest management.