Quantifying Seismic Hazards and Economic Losses in Kerala: A Case Study of Calicut and Surrounding Cities

Abstract

This study evaluates seismic hazards and loss estimation for Calicut and other major cities in Kerala (9°N–13°N and 75°E–78°E) using the IS 1893-Part 1:2016 guidelines and HAZUS software. It assesses the vulnerability of these cities to earthquake events and their potential impacts on regional infrastructure and populations, emphasizing the need for effective preparedness and mitigation strategies. Calicut, categorized as a seismic zone III area, experiences peak horizontal accelerations (PHA) up to 0.2422g and peak vertical accelerations (PVA) of 0.1460g, with the highest seismic risk attributed to Fault-1 in the Arabian Sea. Similar analyses for Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Palakkad, Kochi, and Thrissur reveal varying levels of seismic hazard and vulnerability across the region. An analysis of 75 wards in Calicut highlights potential earthquake-induced losses, with Ward 61 facing significant economic impacts, including ₹12.64 million in building damage and ₹1.43 million in content damage. Overall, the projected economic losses for building damage in Calicut amount to ₹2,342 crores, presenting substantial risks relative to the municipal budget. These findings underscore the urgency of strengthening building codes, retrofitting vulnerable structures, and implementing targeted preparedness measures. These recommendations aim to mitigate risks and enhance the region’s resilience to earthquake events.