Seismic Vulnerability and Earthquake Forecasting in the Bengal Basin: Insights from Indo-Burmese Subduction Dynamics

Abstract

Bangladesh, situated within an active deltaic system primarily composed of unconsolidated alluvial sediments, is acutely vulnerable to seismic hazards due to its tectonic position near the convergent boundaries of the Indian and Burmese plates. Although the country has not experienced any major earthquakes in recent decades, it frequently encounters low-magnitude tremors that cause structural deformations such as cracks and tilting in buildings. This study integrates historical earthquake records with recent geophysical and geodetic models to assess seismic potential and tectonic stress accumulation. Findings highlight the possibility of a megathrust event (Mw 8.2–9.0) along the Indo-Burmese subduction zone, threatening the eastern region of Bangladesh. Historical events, such as the 1762 Cheduba Island earthquake (Mw > 8), which triggered a tsunami that reached the Bangladeshi coast, exemplify the seismic vulnerability of this tectonic domain. Between 1822 and 1918, four major earthquakes (Mw > 7) occurred, followed by an unusually quiet period exceeding a century, suggesting an accumulation of strain energy. Despite the growing awareness of seismic risks, earthquake research in Bangladesh remains constrained by limited institutional collaboration and technical capacity. Enhancing fault characterization, crustal stress modelling, and regional geodynamic studies are essential for mitigating the impact of potential future earthquakes.